P(X=1) = (e⁻⁶ × 6¹) / 1! ≈ 0.0149.
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- But for exactness, use binomial: If daily crash rate is 2, then over 3 days λ = 6.
- P(X=1) = C(6,1) × (2/3)¹ × (1/3)⁵ → but this is not matching.
- Better: Let’s define daily crash rate λ = 2 per day. Over 3 days, λ_total = 6.
- But for simplicity, use exact value.
- #### 0.0149
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